Flow Traders revisited (FLOW NA), May 2021

Recently, I read (and re-read) several books and other content about our biases and how these affect our investing decisions (mostly negatively). Over-confidence is one of the very common biases. My learnings about biases motivated me to revisit my Flow Traders analysis …

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I like this auto insurance company since it is Progressive

Traditional auto insurance companies are not the most desired investments currently. It’s all too easy to buy all these sexy new insurtechs around the corner (via your commission-free trading app). Advertising (or listing) your company as a tech company that could/would/should grow it’s revenue/users/losses by 10/20/50x is all the rage now. If that is what ‘investors’ want, that’s what they get …

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Revisited: Is Oriental Watch the right Hong Kong bargain I want to buy right NOW?

In April, I finally published a post about Oriental Watch. I followed the company since October 2019, but uncertainty remained too high to form an investment case. The bottom line was, I promised to take another look at Oriental Watch when the (preliminary) annual results are available. Final results were released Monday …

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Softbank Group: Do I Want to Buy More, Hold or Sell?

SoftBank Group (SBG) reported its earnings results for FY2019 on Monday (May 18, 2020), including record losses — mostly driven by adjusting the value of its investments like WeWork and Uber, downwards. Son announced another share buy back program and that SoftBank would invest in startups on its own, since finding outside investors for SVF sequels is unlikely. Time to update my sum-of-the-parts valuation…

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Pandora A/S Valuation Update after AR 2019

Pandora A/S released its Q4 and FY 2019 Annual Report on 4th February, 2020. The market reacted negatively with Pandora down 2.5%, presumably to the FY 2020 guidance, with sales guidance meeting expectations but expeted margin falling below expectations. I read through the material and updated my former Valuation-post of Pandora.

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