Free Cash Flow: It always was FCFF or FCFE

I hold a strong opinion for a long time: if it is about valuation visit Damodaran.

Fair P/E multiples as a function of Growth and ROIC

I always thought I was a bit more valuation focused than the average investor, and this likely results from my academic studies which was quite focused on methods. Sure, no science at all, but art and so forth, but some simple truths are important …

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P&C Insurance Economics 103.1: P&C Insurance, inflation and higher rates

P&C and especially Auto insurance companies’ earnings get pressured by higher combined ratios driven by claims inflation. As some central banks raise interest rates to tackle inflation forward investment returns support earnings and returns on equity. Higher investment income might increase competition and pressure underwriting margins further.  …

P&C Insurance Economics 103: Decomposition of ROE, Growth, and P/B

I quickly look at three insurane companies decomposing ROE drivers …

My Old Gazprom write-up

In the early days of my more serious investing journey, I wanted to publish write-ups on Seeking Alpha, but unfortunately …

Flow Traders revisited (FLOW NA), May 2021

Recently, I read (and re-read) several books and other content about our biases and how these affect our investing decisions (mostly negatively). Over-confidence is one of the very common biases. My learnings about biases motivated me to revisit my Flow Traders analysis …

Flow Traders (FLOW NA), April 2021

I follow Flow Traders for some years but only bought shares late last year – unfortunately after the pandemic-iduced market crash. I like the company and it is one of my medium sized positions (currently seventh biggest). I took another look at flow but did not buy more shares, so far …

Pandora Exit and Trade Review

I recently sold my last tranche of Pandora A/S shares. Time for a review.

Germans buy stocks (again). Time to review Tick TS …

With Trade Republic, Germany has its own robinhood – though the app’s gamification /products /users and stimuli to gamble instead of investing at the financial markets is not as extreme as its American role model Robinhood. But, Germans start to invest again …

The world needs cheap high-quality generics. And investments! Hidden growing Krka might do …

I instantly liked the company’s fundamentals, and its foreign ‘hidden’ character. It seems to fly very much under the radar when international investors are concerned. I generally believe this to be a real advantage and can be a strong investor’s edge.

Looking at the company more closely, I liked the vertically integrated business model. But I had to be careful, since I bought into a competitor some years ago. And that investment turned out …

Thoughts on my rising Pandora position

I trimmed my position in Pandora during this year after a strong rebound of the share price. It continued to perform very strongly and it is again time to decide about my rising Pandora position. The share price has just crossed my last fair value estimate …

I looked at the Banking Industry and I invested in this Asian company! (Silverlake)

This is part six and at the same time the last piece of my series on banks, for the time being. In this post I will do a quick recap of the series and take a look at my learnings.

More important for you: I analysed a company I had on my to-do-list for some time now …

The 100-Dollar-Company or The Importance of Time (for High Returns)

Return metrics are usually normalized to annual periods. And this is because the dimension of time plays a crucial role in the realm of investment returns.

A General Risk Framework

According to academia, the cost of equity can be calculated using the CAPM, a central model to modern financial theory. But even Damodaran critizes this as a statistical approach usually considered too narrowly. Damodaran tends to and recommends to think about business risk in a more general sense first, without applying sophisticated and data-heavy statistical methods (which might have its place).

Is Tencent Music (TME) worth buying for its massive long-term growth potential?

[This post was published with password protection on Sept 22 but is now reposted without protection] Spotify is a very well known company in Western Europe and the US. Chances are that you use either Spotify’s services or any other service from Apple, Google, Amazon, etc! Spotify’s investing story rides on the huge secular growth trend of music streaming and podcasts, accelerated through covid-19, resulting in its one year stock price performance of +60%. Spotify’s profitability might be an issue, though. But there might be a more profitable alternative for investors …

Quicky on Q2 results: SES on Track

Today SES SA released its financial results for Q2 2020.

What is Flow Traders’ potential as it is successfully riding the ETF investment trend?

Flow Traders N.V. is a leading global technology-enabled liquidity provider, specialized in Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) that massively profits from the ongoing trend to passive investments (read more in my prior post). As such, it could benefit tremendously in the years and decades to come leveraging its technology and its growing global presence. This post will analyse Flow Traders potential in more detail …

Revisited: Is Oriental Watch the right Hong Kong bargain I want to buy right NOW?

In April, I finally published a post about Oriental Watch. I followed the company since October 2019, but uncertainty remained too high to form an investment case. The bottom line was, I promised to take another look at Oriental Watch when the (preliminary) annual results are available. Final results were released Monday …

Quicky on Pandora A/S: After Strong Recent Performace is Position Trimming Needed?

From its intraday low on March 16th (DKK 182), Pandora rallied strongly with a performance until today (June 4, DKK 362) of +85%, more than +50% within the last month. Since Pandora represents a considerable position of my equity portfolio, I want to do a quick recap of my investment thesis and answer the question if a position resizing might be warranted.

How did the Corona Virus affect Check Point Software Technologies in Q1 2020?

CHKP today announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2020. A solid performance, without major surprises, despite corona. I like!

Is Oriental Watch the right Hong Kong bargain I want to buy right now?

Oriental Watch Holding Ltd. (Oriental Watch, OW) is a holding company that is listed in Hong Kong (398 HK) since 1993. It is active as a luxury watch retailer in greater China with stores in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Macau and Taiwan. I got the initial idea from a blog I highly recommend you to follow! …

Is SES a good buy after shares are down 30% after FY 2019 results?

SES S.A. is an abbreviation for Société Européenne des Satellites. SES is a holding company based in Luxembourg offering satellite communications services globally through its subsidiaries. The company offers services for cable television networks, Internet access, corporate networks, network facilities, telecommunications services, and audiovisual broadcasting serving corporates and governments.

Pandora💍 Valuation Update after Trading Update in March 2020

Pandora A/S released its Trading Update on Monday, 16 March 2020. As could have been expected Pandora withdrew its former financial guidance in the face of corona virus and global economic fallout.

Valuation Update of Check Point Software after FY 2019 results

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. released Q4 results and its Annual Report 2019 on February 3rd, 2020. Time to check my underlying assumptions and to update my valuation model if neccessary …

Pandora A/S Valuation Update after AR 2019

Pandora A/S released its Q4 and FY 2019 Annual Report on 4th February, 2020. The market reacted negatively with Pandora down 2.5%, presumably to the FY 2020 guidance, with sales guidance meeting expectations but expeted margin falling below expectations. I read through the material and updated my former Valuation-post of Pandora.