A twitter user asked me where i posted my update about this interesting situation. So here it is …
This is not investment advice. Please read the disclaimer. I might own discussed stock(s) currently or at a later time. I might transact in any securities at any time.
I am interested in the Porsche SE / AG and VW situation and SOTP case for some time. It was one of the first posts i ever published here. I wrote an update on the situation recently but did not publish it then. I am not allowed to invest in Porsche SE anyway du to compliance reasons. A DM relating to this tweet causes me to publish it here now.
The main asset of Porsche SE is its 53.3% in VW common shares (VOW GR; DE0007664005) with a current market value of (€30,229m @ €192.2), as of Aug 9. Other assets and liabilities are negligible (2022 Q1).
Porsche SE itself has preference and common shares. Only the Porsche SE preference shares (PAH3 GR) are tradeable for us mortals. Assuming both issues had the same price, Porsche SE had a market value of €22,320m at €72.88 per share. Assuming the voting right issues (common) were 1.1x as valuable as the prefs, the current market value was €23,435bn. This compares against a current market value of €30,229m for its 157,282,873 VW commons at €192.2 per share. The value might rise with the Porsche AG IPO, which should be easy to be marketed/hyped (iconic luxus brand, parallels to Ferrari IPO).
A usual SOTP discount (Porsche at 77.5%) which might or might not become narrower if the Porsche AG IPO this year will indeed go ahead — and if former pricing estimates hold up. VW seems to have only chosen US banks for important lead roles — there might be more appetite in the US for such an IPO (EU busy with energy/war). Though, an increase in the value of VW/Porsche AG might be likelier than a smaller discount.
Additional upside in crazy markets? Could thousands of retards get confused about Porsche SE and Porsche AG potenbtially resulting in a nice sudden pop in the share price(s) ?
- My write up from Sept 2019.
- Swen Lorenz’ undervalued-shares article: Lower Saxony’s stake of 20% is a governance concern and hindering VW to become a better business
- A tweet referencing a BBG article: Porsche AG worth €80bn?
- Undervalued Shares about outstanding German investor (link): VW too cheap vs Toyota
- Add Aug 26th BBG: enough demand to fill oder book at upper range (€ 60-85bn) and oversubsribed at lowe range.
- I bought a small position @ €67.66.
- Three women to be in board after IPO (manager Magazin) might be more virtue signaling than anything else (=governance issues!)
- https://twitter.com/die_sdk/status/1568615760829861889 – https://youtu.be/eGEFvrTFNGo
- The Economist (Sept 24th, 2022) with a queer take: Meanwhile, financial independence means that Porsche can no longer rely on vw’s profits to bail it out should motorists ever fall out of love with its cars, or its margins be crimped by the arrival of competitors at the pricier end of the luxury segment (which Mercedes-Benz is already sizing up). Investors, fasten your seatbelts.
- Calc: Porsche has about 310m shares (153.125m common and prefs each) and owns 157m VW comons, thus we can get about one VW common for two Porsche SE shares (1 VOW : 2 PAH3)
One thought on “Quick update on Porsche SE / VW”
It might be worth speculating shortly before they IPO that people will mix up the 2 Porsche listings….
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