Food for Thought #56 // Links

Includes: BASF, Agro stocks, overconfidence, Russia/Ukraine,…

KoI advises you Don’t trust management forecasts. Why? Because they are overconfident.
(includes a great test for (y)our overconfidence, like the one in Little Book of Behavioral Investing I believe)

Swen Lorenz with an interview about opportunities around the Russian/Ukraine crisis. Incl. some thoughts on the government of Greece. And a great piece about Ukrainian Agro Companies owning chunks of farmland.

Howard Marks memo: The pendulum in international affairs. I always liked his penulum analogies.

For once a German piece about the many dependencies between (Russian) natural gas and various chemicals (I often read/link to doomberg/Irina Salv but they may appear ‘alternative’ because they do not align with ‘mainstream media’, or, they may just be early on critical developments): BASF in Ludwigshafen: Wie systemrelevant ist ein einziger Konzern. (So far I believe all the interdependencies are seriously underestimated! More and more less industrialized countries experience serious food price inflation and scarcity, already)

Marc Rubinstein about commodities trading. And airplanes leasing.

Best and happy investing, s4v

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