In the early days of my more serious investing journey, I wanted to publish write-ups on Seeking Alpha, but unfortunately …
Unfortunately, Seeking Alpha wanted me to use a much more attention-seeking headline. Since I did not want to join these click-bait contests and some other factors like silly formatting rules I decided against publishing at SA. I use my SA profile for some discussion in the commenting sections. There are some gems to be found at SA, but it is mostly buried under a pile of low-quality content…
If you are not turned off by a naively assumed Ebitda-margin you can view my 2018 Gazprom write-up. Enjoy!
Obviously, now is a nice time to look at former Gazprom write-ups/buy decisions, but, if the current China situation teaches us anything, it should probabaly be that such risks (I would loosely categorize them under special EM-risks) are always there, sometimes they are hidden for longer times to appear from behind the curtain, but nonetheless, these risks have always been on the stage … we only chose to care less!
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I own Gazprom too, and I had a quick look at your analysis for comparison. My valuation is very similar for midcycle oil & gas prices however I do assume the stock price will be meaningfully higher or lower depending on where gas prices are, which is no different from any other oil & gas stock (also, Gazprom’s dividends are directly affected). ​Especially the gas price matters IMO.
This is why I may not sell at a “fair value” 8 euro share price. There is talk about a tighter LNG cyle until 2024-ish. If that proves out, I’m raising my fair value to ~11 (assumes $10 gas instead of midcycle $7).
How I monitor this: my theory is that Gazprom’s realized gas price follows european gas spot (e.g. TTF), and that TTF depends on LNG prices. Marginal gas supply in the world is US LNG these days, in my view.
Just saying, don’t sell too soon 😉
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11 euro is just a rough indication since we don’t know what kind of mid-/long-term gas prices the market will price in. So I think the better approach is to simply sell in the second or third year of the upcycle (these cycles tend to take several years). LNG cycles tend to be several years, and we probably want to wait until Gazprom has paid out a monster dividend, with more such dividends expected by the market.
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