Food for Thought #31 // Links🔗

This time the most interesting content I stumbled over includes: Roblox, value factor, moats, a bank, cyclical vs structural trends, WD-40 …

Must read: Howard Marksmemo about his 2020 review and his 2021 outlook: there are many arguments for both sides (defense vs offense). Another great investor, Ray Dalio, recently expressed his rather cautious or negative views on the USD.

A Memo to Investors from Alberbridgecap about market overreactions not supported by a fundamentals and why this will eventually be valuable for opportunistic stock-pickers.

Swen Lorenz with his newest weekly dispatch*: Digital Decolonisation part #2.

Stock: Diligent Dollar with an interesting WD-40 Bull Case ( $WDFC) – I just head to read it to the end (despite feeling inclined to stop at the high-multiples chart) since WD-40 was a great case study in Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond.

Collaborative with Investing: The Greatest Show On Earth about learning about investing by reading outside of the realm of investing and also learning about life be learning about money/investing topics.

or some time I think odds are that ARK is more of a marketing show than a serious investment undertaking, but in addition add the following possibility: Did FT alphaville just reveal a legal ticket time bomb for ARK?

A nice write up on Roblox (IPO’d Martch 10th). Done with Revue, the new monetization potential for twitter.

Cyclical versus structural trends by the undercover fund manager.

The lowest risk bank on the LSE by Bruce Packard made me question if it’s a better bet than Sberbank.

Junto with Seven Signs to Spot an Economic Moat Ex Ante.

Everybody believes in never sell your winners and refers to Google, FB, MSFT, Amzn etcs, and usually forget to mention the hundreds of (similar) companies nobody knows of anymore (hindsight bias). But, that’s exactly what we should expect in a (crazy) bull market. Forager with The Case for Cutting Outstanding Performers.

Bronte with Greensill – who is holding the bag (part #2). Answer: Insurance Australia Group (IAG AU) and/or Tokio Marine
… and of course German taxpayers (who else?) and it is susually not even worth ato mention anymore

In The Long Run Is Lying to You Cliff Asness argues against extrapolating past (value) factor return(differential)s into the future. Why? Because, the starting valuation is relevant.

If you worry about the worlds financial markets, interest rates and monetary policies, the below might give you a quick revief and a great lauch 😀 and an alarming impression of what tech is already capable of (fake videos – I remeber the eceonomist published a fake news video, if parties want to, they can already produce faked videos (or general content) that is pretty hard to reveal!)

Best and happy investing, s4v

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