Food for Thought #29 // Links🔗

This time the most interesting content I stumbled over includes: Trust, more ETF saving plans , shorting Tesla, investment philosophy, stories, FLOW NA, TBX, BOL, VIV, UMG, …

Must reads from Collaborative

  1. Best Story Wins: the most compelling story wins not the best idea
    • look at current stock markets, crypto assets, recommendations by elon/capathiyita/sailor
  2. Unfortunate Investing Traits: it’s not easy to draw conclusions from the (final) investing result about the quality of the (initial) investment decision (investment philosophy)
    • the same is true for poker (which is a ‘sport’ I like to play and for investing comparisons)

An iron rule of investing is that almost nothing is certain and the best we can do is put the odds of success in our favor. Since we’re working with odds – not certainties – it’s possible to make good decisions that don’t work, bad decisions that work beautifully, and random decisions that may go either way.


Swen Lorenz with his newest weekly dispatch* about The Amazon of Iran.

GreenWood InvestorsFourth Quarter 2020 Letter, incl.

  • CTT (wanted to look at it for a long time now, since reading about it from GW)
  • Their position in MicroStrategy (BTC)
  • Why it’s a time to stay very humble and not draw permanent lessons

Peridot’s Reader Mailbag: Merits of Shorting Tesla. A few months ago, I ‘shortly’ thought about buying a Jan 2023, Tesla put with $250 strike which could pay off if i) fundamentals matter again and/or ii) during a market sell off when novice investors realize that stonks only go up is not true after all. One of various scenarios thought of, was Tesla falling to VW’s EV. I concluded the price (implied vola) was too expensive, despite index inclusion and ii) would be very nice for and playable by FLOW NA.

Roll up! Get yer easy returns here… – ShareScope Articles

The undercover fund manager about Trust – the most important factor in business. He firmly believes companies that have treated their employees and suppliers best during the Covid-19 crisis are set to emerge stronger; even if their profits are a little lower today. That’s also my believe and when I recently listened to an earnings call I knew I had to dig deeper after the CEO stating (writing still in progress)

»there is more to life than chasing short-term EPS … we will get multiple returns on these investments in our employees.«

FY 2020 earnings call


Amsterdam overtook London as Europe’s largest share trading center in January after Brexit saw about half of the U.K. capital’s trading volumes moved to the continent (FT).
Good/bad for FLOW NA? I don’t know, maybe bigger talent pool with more competition.

ETF trends: Ever more Germans and likely other Europeans as well, are investing using more ETF saving plans (likely good for FLOW NA, and also TBX). These tend to be stickier than single app-traded stocks (and stonks).

LinkedIn post from Joachim Althof

Marc Rubinstein about financial regulation/competition in The Policy Triangle (+Virtu, Adyen, PayPal).

The Economist partly explains why I love travel and miss it! so much:
(One of a few non-investment quotes I want to keep)

»Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness.« – Mark Twain

Mark Twain (source)

Company news

  • Tick TS (TBX GR) wants to hire even more employees during current year (link).
    • likely a hint for more growth to come
  • TikTok users can use UMG’s clips now, good for Bolloré (BOL FP, VIV FP)
    • various news about UMG IPO broke, latest:
      • VIV shareholders could receive 60% of UMG shares
  • Since I recently wrote a tobacco post, Japan Tobacco slumped after cutting its dividend
    • Altria’s (MO) earnings were better
  • Oriental Watch‘s (398 HK) Dr. Yeung Ming Biu, chairman and executive director, passed away. Mr. Yeung Him Kit, Dennis (51, his son) has been appointed as the chairman of the company, was executive director before.
    • will be interesting to see if he changes the company’s development
  • Quadient (QDT FP) held an education session for its parcel pending locker solutions
    • gave a good impression of its product, adresses many pain points
    • again impression QDT is ridiculously cheap vs InPost (w/o knwing it too well)
      • likely player B on slide #27
    • sadly, French English is sooooo hard to understand
      • (or even to identify as English sometimes 😉 )
      • the video was a pleasure to watch / listen to
    • its mobile app (android) has a good avery rating (4.6/5) w/ 50k+ downloads
    • personally I had always dreamed of parcel lockers as the default option for various reasons (economics, health, less cars on the road)
  • Flow Traders (FLOW NA) reported solid Q4 /FY results, a personal highlight:
    • #1 market maker in cryptocurrency ETPs,
      • active on 15 exchanges globally
      • providing 24/7 liquidity
  • Silverlake Axis (SILV SP) released Q2 results, still depressed by pandemic factors but
    • some new contracts

Best and happy investing, s4v

* marks an affiliate: if you want to become a paying member to Swen’s world-class content please use my link. hte price for you is the same. I might receive a referral bonus (money).

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