Food for Thought #21 // Links🔗

This time the most interesting content I stumbled over includes: equity markets, bubbles, lessons, Tesla, frauds, McKesson, Benchmarking, …

Must read: Chris Mayer draws important (some may call it shocking) similarities between bubbly (tech) equity markets in his beautiful write-up A Tale of Bubbles Past.

Equity markets: GMO (also) believes were are in a growth bubble and value stocks should perform better as written in its Q3 letter

More on equity markets: Jim Chanos talks about Tesla, IBM, frauds in bull markets, dream stocks, and much more in this Video. He also draws a great analogy between investing and poker inbcluded in my list of Quotes. Poker is my favorite ‘sports’ for comparirosns with investing. You can read more here.

Swen Lorenz with his newest weekly dispatch about the art and science of reading signals and the new book from visual capitalist. (if you want to become a paying member to his world-class content please use my affiliate link)

Bireme Capital with important Lessons. A Quote comes to mind:

»[Investors] will learn an enormous amount in a very short time, quite a bit in the medium term and absolutely nothing in the long term.« – Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham in the depths of GFC, (Baupost Q2 2020)

Chris Mayer with 100-Baggers: The Lost Chapter.

Not boring states The future of work is remote, and companies don’t really have a choice.

Vitaliy Katsenelson with an update on McKesson (MCK US) stating that #DeathByAmazon is not a real threat.

Marc Rubinstein from netinterest about the business of benchmarking.

Year’s end: Forager’s 2020 Book Recommendations includes a poker book I added to my personal reading list. Nick Maggiulli shares his Favorite Investment Writing of 2020.

  • I also started writing my review of 2020. I believe, this is an important exercise for investors to reflect on ones decisions, processes etc. …

Company news

  • Bauernfreund (AVI) on Softbank Group (9984 JP) in a Trustnet article. I agree(d) with several of his assessments and also currently believe that “on a risk reward profile, it stacks up very attractively” i.e. due to the continous massive and shareholder value creating buy backs.
    • Softbank Group (9984 JP) jumps +7% on Wednesday on new go-private rumors
  • Progressive (PGR US) with a nice dividend announcement. Increases special dividend due to strong capitla position and expected future capital needs. I recently increased my position.
  • Universal Music (UMG) buys music right from Bob Dylan, Videndi (VIV) and Bolloé (BOL FP) shares react positively
  • Pandora (PNDORA +5%) released a reassuring November trading update.
  • L’Occitane‘s (973 HK) recent sales performance in China seems to be spectacular.
  • Quadient (QDT FP) answers with a letter to Teleios
    • QDT rebutted a potential bid for its customer experience management or CXM business, which could be valued at more than €350m ($414m)
    • close to QDT’s market capitalization prior to the news
  • Maybe Checkpoint’s (CHKP US) products will soon be used to secure a competitor’s networks 😀 Cybersecurity firm FireEye (-7%) was hacked and tools used for testing customers defenses were stolen. Oooops.
    • I hope I will never read this about CHKP!

Best and happy investing, s4v

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