Pandora released preliminary results for the first six months of 2020 on Wednesday, stating encouraging developments regarding store re-openings and presenting the prospect of a break-even result on an adjusted Ebit margin basis.
Key points are
- end of June, 86% of concept stores were open
- sharply up from 20% end of April, 51% end of May
- organic growth metrics continued to improve during Q2
- Online organic growth was 176% in Q2
- adj Ebit expected to be roughly breakeven in Q2
- significantly better than expectations communicated in early May
- situation and macroeconomic environment as highly uncertain and unpredictable
Market reaction was very positive. Shares reached DKK 405
400 on thursday, rising more than +7% 6% intraday.
Pandora’s turnaround seemed to be going well before the pandemic struck, as demonstrated through positive KPIs in January and February. If the company successfully returns to its turnaround path, most importantly positive like-for-like trends, there should be more upside.
Key risks seem to be second waves accompanied by economic lockdowns, store closures and continuing economic, consumer uncertainty. In the short-term, prevailing conditions in the fourth quarter will be key, since it is very important for both sales and profits.
No Valuation Update
My last valuation from May indicated a fair value per share of DKK 644 (€ 86, $ 93). Currently, I will not update this valuation, but I guess there is a good chance for some upside. But: huge uncertainty persists!
I concluded to trim my Pandora position in my post about the importance of position sizing, but I still hold a considerable PNDORA position slightly smaller than CHKP with regard to current market value.
The release of the Q2 interim financial report is scheduled for 18 August 2020.
On July 9th, Pandora reported that Société Générale S.A. or SocGen, a French bank holds ‘gross position of derivatives and shares equivalent to 10.21% of the total share capital’.
I hope you enjoyed my quicky on Pandora A/S (click here for all company posts).
Do you have a different opinion on Pandora or disagree with my main assumptions?