January 6, Pandora A/S (PNDORA) released a Trading Update based on unaudited financial numbers for FY 2019 which market participants reacting very positive, sending the stock higher (+10%).
Based on unaudited financial numbers, Q4 total like-for-like1 is expected to be -4% concluding the financial year 2019 with total like-for-like1 of -8% which is in line with the expectations communicated at the beginning of the year. Organic growth is expected to be -1% for Q4 and -8% for the full year. The full-year EBIT margin excluding restructuring costs is expected to be in the upper end of the guided range of 26-27%.Trading Update
The sequential improvement in like-for-like confirms the strategic direction and the effectiveness of Programme NOW to bring Pandora back to sustainable growth with industry-leading margins. As previously communicated, like-for-like is expected to be negative in 2020. Further, the 2020 EBIT margin excluding restructuring costs is expected to be lower than in 2019.
- Total like-for-like as well as Organic Growth for FY 2019 is pretty much what I modeled in my DCF Valuation of Pandora.
- I was a bit more optimistic for the full year Adj. EBIT margin, modeled at 27%.
- Adj. EBIT margin for FY 2020 Exp. to be lower than 2019. This is not reflected in my model, since I estimated 30% for 2020 and slightly increasing margins afterwards.
As of 3rd Jan, Pandora owns a total of 7,135,924 treasury shares, corresponding to 7.14% of the Company’s share capital. I like this ongoing share buy back programme very much and I hope another one will be instated later this year.
When the Annual Report 2019 will be released on February 4th 2020, I will perform a deeper analysis of Pandora answering if my investment hyphothesis seems to be valid for the future.